The future

August 11, 2020 ideas, forecasting

The First Law of Forecasting: The future will be like the present, plus a little more or a little less

The Second Law of Forecasting: The reliability of the First Law weakens at an unpredictable rate as the forecast horizon lengthens

The Third Law of Forecasting: The First Law is subject to unannounced, immediate revocation

Richard Careaga